Neal S Axelrod CPA

Are you thinking of getting out of dodge?

States and cities can be ranked about their economic climate. There are a few organizations that review and analyze government financial information. Their specific rankings may not be the same, but they all convey the same conclusion. Additionally, people vote with their feet, and moving companies track this because they have to plan.

TRUTH IN ACCOUNTING is a nonpartisan American think tank, whose stated goal is the promotion of transparent government financial information to citizens, by analyzing government finances on the city, state, and federal level.
The AMERICAN LEGISLATIVE EXCHANGE COUNCIL (ALEC) is a nonprofit organization of conservative state legislators and private sector representatives who draft and share model state-level legislation for distribution among state governments in the United States.
The TAX FOUNDATION is a think tank that collects data and publishes research studies on federal and state tax policies.
UNITED VAN LINES is a moving company that publishes an Annual National Movers Study that indicates where Americans move to or from.

TO THE EXTENT POSSIBLE, PEOPLE MOVE FROM BAD FINANCIAL AREAS TO BETTER ONES.
This may matter to you if you are thinking of moving.

A brief synopsis follows. There are links in case you want to look at the data.

FINANCIAL STATE OF THE STATES
Truth in Accounting.org -- Latest edition is September 2020

https://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/detail/financial-state-of-the-states-2020

Past: State rankings of how each state has performed.
39 states did not have enough money to pay all of their bills.
The report includes charts as well as analysis. Some interesting charts are:

-- 50 State Rankings pages 6, 12-13
-- US map color coding state rankings page 25

Best states: Alaska #1, North Dakota #2, Wyoming #3, Utah #4, Tennessee #5.
Worst states: Massachusetts #46, Hawaii #47, Connecticut #48, Illinois #49, New Jersey #50.
New Jersey has ranked #50 for 6 years in a row, twice as bad as #45 Delaware. New York is #41, California #43.
RICH STATES POOR STATES
American Legislative Exchange Council -- Latest edition is August 2020

https://www.richstatespoorstates.org/publication/rich-states-poor-states-13th-edition/

Future: State rankings of each state's economic forecast, based on 15 state policy variables.
Best states: Utah #1 (been #1 since 2008), Wyoming #2, Idaho #3, Indiana #4, North Carolina #5, Nevada #6, Florida #7, Tennessee #8.
Worst states: California #46 (2019=47), Illinois #47, New Jersey #48 (2019=46), Vermont #49, New York #50 (been #50 since 2014).
BUSINESS TAX CLIMATE
Tax Foundation -- Latest edition is October 2019

https://taxfoundation.org/publications/state-business-tax-climate-index/

Future: Compares state tax systems.
Best states: Wyoming #1, South Dakota #2, Alaska #3, Florida #4, Montana #5.
Worst states: Arkansas #46, Connecticut #47, California #48, New York #49, New Jersey #50.
UNITED VAN LINES MOVING STUDY
Latest edition is 2019

https://www.unitedvanlines.com/newsroom/movers-study-2019

Not weighted by population, measures where people moved to and from, for whatever reason.
Top outbound states are: New Jersey #1, Illinois #2, New York #3, Connecticut #4, California #7.
FINANCIAL STATE OF THE CITIES
Truth in Accounting.org -- Latest edition is January 2020

https://www.truthinaccounting.org/news/detail/2020-financial-state-of-the-cities

Past: City rankings of how the 75 largest cities have performed.
63 of 75 cities did not have enough money to pay all of their bills.
#74 Chicago has a tax burden of $37,100 per person, #75 New York City $63,100 (70% higher than #74).
GRADING THE GOVERNORS ON REOPENING THEIR ECONOMIES
The American Legislative Exchange Council issued a report grading the governors on reopening their state economies, a/o June 2020

https://www.alec.org/app/uploads/2020/07/Governors-Report-Card-20200616.pdf

49 states got F or better.
F states are Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Wisconsin.
1 state got an F- (F minus): New Jersey.

RECAP

Select states are summarized from each of the above.

FSS -- Financial State of the States (measures how each state has performed)
RSPS -- Rich States Poor States (future economic forecast)
BTC -- Business Tax Climate (compares each states tax systems)
UVLMS -- United Van Lines Moving Study, measure % outbound (where people are moving from)
ALEC -- American Legislative Exchange Council (grading the governors on reopening their state economies)

STATE	FSS	RSPS	BTC	UVLMS	ALEC
Fleeing from:
CA	43	46	48	56.9%	D
PA	38	38	29	51.2%	F
NJ	50	48	50	68.5%	F-
NY	41	50	49	63.1%	F
VA	13	16	25	52.9%	F
Fleeing to:
FL	16	7	4	41.9%	A
TX	34	15	13	44.4%	B

Caveat

Data and rankings in any of the reports are based on different policy variables. If you were to rank by a specific variable, the ranking may not match the overall ranking. For instance, in RICH STATES POOR STATES, New Jersey is ranked 48, but the 15 variables range from 4 to 50, 1 below 10, 9 above 40, 1 is 50.

While each report is not an exact match, the trend is that people are moving from high-tax blue states to low-tax red states. People move to where the jobs are and the taxes lower. The same states are in the bottom 20% of all studies: Connecticut, California, Illinois, New York, and New Jersey. New Jersey is consistently the worst state.

The conclusion is simple: These states need to lower their taxes.

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